Common Sense
Islamic State
Syria Fixation: Evaluation of US Strategic Options and Priorities
Tensions have increased sharply between the United States and Russia since the breakdown of the Syrian ceasefire two weeks ago. Although there have been no incidents involving forces from either side, there has been much irresponsible talk on both sides. There has also been a concrete escalation, mostly on the side of the Russians, which […]
Inherent Resolve: Full Data Set 2015 to present
Time series analysis is a valuable statistical tool, used in many industries to develop models, understand patterns and bring some order out of the chaos of a complex economy. It is no less useful in studying military affairs: the ebb and flow of battles and campaigns is a real phenomenon and one that cannot be […]
Did the US Abandon the New Syrian Army at Al Bukamal?
On the 28th of June, elements of the rebel force called the New Syrian Army executed a highly ambitious attack to seize the key border town of Al Bukamal. The town sits astride Highway 4[1], the Euphrates River and is only 6 kilometers from the Iraqi border and the town of Al Qa’im. It is […]
Erdogan’s Apology: Cui Prodest?
Word leaked early this week of a potential shift in Turkey’s relations with Russia, with President Erdogan writing a letter of condolence to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the family of slain pilot Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov. He expressed his regret over the incident and his hope that “we may be forgiven.” The Turkish […]
“Brussels Attacks: A Poor Plan Executed With Good Bombs” by Stratfor
The article is reprinted with permission of the Stratfor. The views expressed are exclusively those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by Common Sense. Summary Details of the March 22 attacks in Brussels are still emerging. But new information from several sources suggests the attacks were smaller than originally planned and may have been […]
The Coalition Targets Mosul
Allied air operations in Iraq and Syria continue to indicate that Mosul is the next target of a ground offensive to retake territory from the Islamic State. The distribution and intensity of strikes around that city, and the interdiction of the logistical routes for supplying its defenders, mirrors that of previous offensives, such as the […]
Evolution of Coalition Air Operations and the Sunni “Endgame” in Syria, Iraq
As I pointed out in early December, changes to the balance of forces in Syria and Iraq have been forcing together the disparate and fractious elements of the “informal Sunni coalition,” nominally led by Saudi Arabia. These actors have had little in common except an extreme wariness of Persian power and influence west of the […]
To the Shores of Tripoli
Great Britain and Italy are preparing to send ground troops to Libya. With little media attention and even less public debate, up to 6,000 British and Italian soldiers would be deployed to bolster the fragile unity government in its efforts to end the lawlessness in the country and combat the growing presence of Islamic State […]
2016: The Year of Ungovernability (Part 3)
This series of articles provides a brief overview of the conditions in different parts of our increasingly unified global system that are symptomatic of its increasing entropy. The selected examples are each relevant to the disorders of our day, both in relative size and in their typology, though they may appear to be unrelated. This […]
Evolution of Islamic State Objectives and Operations
Recent changes in the balance of power in the Syrian battlespace has possibly led to a change in strategic focus by the Islamic State. These changes are vital to understand in order to evaluate the potential impact both on the outcome of the civil war as well as the broader implications for the entire Arab […]
Common Sense
- Trump’s Taiwan Policy: Bumbling Towards War? December 20, 2016
- Comrades in the Kremlin December 15, 2016
- Mourn the Left December 11, 2016
- Ozymandias Part 2: The Decline and Fall of the Democratic Party November 20, 2016
- The Genius of America November 15, 2016
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