Our first full weekend after Brexit has ended and, shockingly, Great Britain has not tumbled off into space. There has been financial turmoil, with sterling taking a beating and the FTSE falling substantially. Some European markets did even worse, especially the Spanish IBEX that had its worst day in history. Yet all this bloodletting on the stock market may be entirely transient, with real people and the real economy little effected. The predictions of doom were always more of a political nature than economic.

The FTSE (left) and sterling (center) were slaughtered after Brexit, suffering historic falls. So too were European markets, including Spain’s IBEX (right)

David Cameron is getting a terrible rap these days; that’s just how it goes when you lose a big vote. And while I disagree with many of his social and economic policies as Prime Minister, I still respect his principles in this matter. The referendum on Scottish independence was the right thing to do; the referendum on EU membership was the right thing to do.  I don’t believe he insincere at all about these plebiscites; I am convinced Mr. Cameron truly believed in the right of the people to make these fundamental decisions about their own future. The referendum was bungled from the beginning, as I’ve argued before, reducing a complex and nuanced relationship down to a stark binary choice. He obviously did a terrible job explaining it to the rest of the country too,  but that does not invalidate the principle.

Mr. Cameron nevertheless did his country a great service by announcing his resignation; but not until October; and he won’t invoke the Article 50 withdrawal provision before then. That buys at least another 3 months for everyone: the initial shock will wear off, European leaders will have a chance to consider what a new relationship with Britain might look like; and British voters will have a chance to reconsider the ballots they cast in the referendum. The economic turmoil that has followed the vote may make some reflect on consequences they had previously dismissed; while others may consider that these could well be the last holidays they spend in Europe with the need to spend hours in the passport line.

An Article 50 invocation might take even longer than the UK election. France goes to the polls in April and May 2017, while Germany has its federal election in August or September. The next British PM is very likely going to want to wait until it is clear whether they will be negotiating with Nicolas Sarkozy or Marine Le Pen; and Angela Merkel’s future is not clear either. Starting the 2-year negotiating clock when the two biggest powers on the other side of the table might suffer radical changes in leadership is not a good idea: and while the new French or German governments could very likely insist on starting from scratch, the countdown doesn’t stop. You’ve simply lost 10 months.

The next general election in the UK will therefore be another de facto referendum. I imagine Labour and the Liberal Democrats (what’s left of them) will come out with an unapologetic platform of remaining in the EU; and if they win, they’ll have a mandate to ignore the earlier results. Jeremy Corbyn – assuming he is still Labour’s leader after his half-hearted performance in the referendum – will certainly argue that Britons made a mistake and that it is not too late to reconsider. But even assuming a Tory victory – or God forbid a UKIP one – the new Prime Minister will have had time to plan and discuss the future status of the country with European and American leaders.

Those are discussions that should not wait: the ones with Washington. They should begin immediately. President Obama’s election time warning that “Britain would have to go to the back of the (trade) line” simply cannot be adhered to. The United Kingdom has been our closest ally for the past 100 years. The prospect of the UK leaving the European Union is complicated enough; but the prospect of the UK falling apart would be really disastrous. As “romantic” as the idea of an independent Scotland might be (cue Wallace: “Freedom!”) it would enormously weaken the Atlantic Alliance and US national security. It is also pertinent that the UK is the third largest holder of US Treasury bonds and one off our key trading partners; not helping Britain would also hurt us economically.

The US should make a special effort to preserve the special relationship by fast tracking an FTA with Great Britain and providing a special status for UK citizens to study, work and live in the US. Given Britain’s close ties with Canada, it would not be inconceivable to put in place a NAFTA expansion for the Brits. Some sign of support from the US is called for after the twin elections in October and November: announcing the formation of a commission to study a possible UK-US FTA will ease British fears and ensure that an angry Europe cannot make an example of them. This should be the top priority of the next US President.

The palpable anger in Scotland, and the fear and uncertainty in Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and the Falklands need to be addressed soon. However Scottish talk of another independence referendum seems premature. Until Scottish voters have something concrete to vote on; i.e. the details of a new relationship between the UK and Europe, it is foolhardy to talk of a referendum. There needs to be a cooling off period and an agreement in place; only then can such talk be countenanced. The same goes for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar: less haste and more reflection are called for.

The United Kingdom is in danger of coming apart at the seams as Scotland (left), Northern Ireland (center) and Gibraltar (right) all reassess their relationship with England and the EU.

The direct impacts of the Brexit referendum will continue to play out over the next 4 or 5 years – sorry for those of you who are already sick to death of it. But we can be sure that Britain and the British aren’t going anywhere; some accommodation will have to be reached and then people will get on with their lives.