Comments on: Mythbusters #6: The Great War and the Inevitability of Conflicts http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/08/13/mythbusters-7-the-inevitability-of-conflict/ Fernando Betancor's Thoughts on the Present State of American Affairs Fri, 21 Nov 2014 12:39:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.1 By: fdbetancor http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/08/13/mythbusters-7-the-inevitability-of-conflict/#comment-5248 Wed, 13 Aug 2014 08:38:18 +0000 http://www.fdbetancor.com/?p=2849#comment-5248 Mr. Allué,

Thank you for your interest in the site and for taking the time to comment on the article.

Your points are well-founded and they reinforce my own message: great leaders set trends, poor leaders follow them. The men of pre-war Europe were not, generally speaking, any more imbecilic or grossly wicked than in other times and places: in fact, they were for the most part remarkably civilized and rational, and compare favorably with some of the specimens running important countries today. Unfortunately, with a very few exceptions, they were not “great men”: they allowed themselves to become slaves to the prejudices and preconceptions of the times. The Germans allowed themselves to become convinced that a showdown with France and Russia was inevitable (of course it wasn’t) so better in 1914 when Germany was at its peak. Bethman-Hollweg wrote in his diary that he was against war and against the idea that the Reich must “expand or die”, but he was too weak to oppose it and too mediocre to offer an alternative. Czar Nicolas wept as he signed the mobilization order; but sign it he did against his better judgment.

Unfortunately, it often takes extraordinary leadership on both sides to secure peace. Gorbachev had Reagan, who demonstrated remarkable foresight and strategic vision in grasping the opportunity the Soviets were offering. Though he was by no means my favorite President, this was his crowning glory: a more close-minded, blinkered leader stuck in Cold War modes might have pushed the Russians too hard and forced Gorbachev to end glasnost and perestroika before they had a chance to take hold. The fall of the Berlin Wall and German reunification were not inevitable either.

So today we need extraordinary leaders in the US and China (at least) to avoid getting ourselves into a rut where competition becomes confrontation, and confrontation becomes the end in itself. It would be nice if the Japanese and Russians could also produce such leaders; though it is too much to ask for Europe do produce anything cohesive in the near future. They will just have to continue to muddle along. But if a Sino-American modus vivendi can be established that avoids an arms race and ever-heightening tensions, I have hope for the future.

Kind regards,

Fernando Betancor

]]> By: Xavier Allué http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/08/13/mythbusters-7-the-inevitability-of-conflict/#comment-5244 Wed, 13 Aug 2014 08:02:53 +0000 http://www.fdbetancor.com/?p=2849#comment-5244 A bunch of European leaders set on warmongering from the previous century realities were the responsible of the disaster.
Sure today there are insane or perverse people prone to practice and encourage violence in its most aggressive way.
But 100 years ago there were many more. Even had they did not expect immediate or tangible benefits. But above all staffs about the armies of both sides, darkened by the idea of ​​Clausewitz continuing politics by other means and programming a methodology of destruction based on five shots rifles and recoilless guns, already 50 years obsolete. Even wore flashing uniforms f bright colours at first. A gang of useless murderers . “Pour Berlin” … “Nacht Paris” … and started a war over they were not even able to finish if it had not been for the H1N1 flu virus …
It was Edmund Burke, the English politician though born in Ireland in the eighteenth century, who said that the people that do not know their history are forced to repeat it. The idea then it has been attributed to Winston Churchill, who probably used it at some time or other, and also to George Santayana, a Harvard professor, American but born in Madrid. But probably they and others could have taken it from the 1st Epistle of St. Paul to the Corinthians, 10, 11, where referring to the history of Israel says “Everything that was written to be not only knew you committed the same mistakes …”
Thank you for contributing to the knowledge of the myths of history

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