Comments on: Spain’s Bolivarian Revolution (Part 2): Sooner Than Expected? http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/06/09/spains-bolivarian-revolution-part-2-sooner-than-expected/ Fernando Betancor's Thoughts on the Present State of American Affairs Mon, 19 Oct 2015 17:36:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.3.1 By: Santos http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/06/09/spains-bolivarian-revolution-part-2-sooner-than-expected/#comment-3781 Fri, 04 Jul 2014 15:18:24 +0000 http://www.fdbetancor.com/?p=2704#comment-3781 This content is very interesting but it took me a
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By: Genís Vendrell http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/06/09/spains-bolivarian-revolution-part-2-sooner-than-expected/#comment-3054 Tue, 10 Jun 2014 15:19:02 +0000 http://www.fdbetancor.com/?p=2704#comment-3054 I think the logic behind voting tendencies is rooted in the psychology of a battle. A few months ago, the contenders were PP and PSOE and people chose to be on one side or another. In a society that is used to very rapid change, it has been easy to reframe the scenario to a PP-PSOE versus The Other, being Podemos one of them. This setting would explain the relatively high percentage of ex PP voters who whoud root for the red colored fighter this time. I think it is about taking down the reigning parties, who are not pleasing the public, more than it is about ideology.

If the obove is true, we can expect an even stronger support for the party that has prooved to be a real menace to the establishment. “Podemos”, we can, is a very clever name to convince people they have a possibility to make a fight. To avoid this scenario, PSOE should have been taking a more aggressive and combative stance against PP, to preserve the PSOE vs PP framework, with a more juvenile face and not with a well known dinosaur. Maybe they were influenced by external forces to take this strategy, or this non-strategy, and it may be too late now to do something about it. Being in the middle of a battle, not on one side, neither on the other, means taking blows from both.

If PSOE decides to ally with PP, the problem could be really severed, because they would create a stronger aversion and opposition that could end up with a Podemos victory. In this radicalized scenario, PP would hold more strongly in one extreme than a decomposed PSOE, representing the nothingness. If they decided to ally with Podemos and IU, verbalizing a victory of the left, they would have the possibility to be part of the renewed hope of millions and to support some makeup measures to please and calm down the people, without much real change, with a prospect of political stability… if it were not for the catalan tornado.

The Spanish estabishment has showed very little intelligence in the catalan crisis, acting always in a short term logic, creating a Spain versus Catalonia framework, the root of the problem, worsening it every day. If they prove to be equally prepared to deal with this new menace, they will support a PP-PSOE alliance and a dirty fight against Podemos. And they may deservedly lose.

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