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Scotland

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The Fragmentation of States: Elite Access to Power in Spain and Britain

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Summary States form when people band together to seek mutual protection and to facilitate trade and commerce. The optimal size of any given state is not a constant, depending upon the perceived threat of violence from external actors, access to foreign markets, the imposition of geographies and the costs of friction. Friction arises from differences […]

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Scotland, Cameron and Rajoy

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The ballots are in and Scotland has voted decisively to remain in the Union[1]. The results became clear in the early morning hours after 30 of Scotland’s 32 councils had reported in and the lead in the “NO” vote became insurmountable. By a slightly wider margin than I had previously predicted[2] Scottish voters agreed that they […]

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The Fragmentation of Nations

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Today the people of Scotland will go to the polls and decide to keep or divide the United Kingdom. It is an act of monumental significance: firstly for the important precedent of the peaceful and lawful exercise of the right to self-determination; secondly, for the immediate consequences of their decision on one of the most […]

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Catalonia-Spain September Update: The Gift of a Thistle

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People are finally starting to take notice of the political tsunami that is forming in Europe. People that matter: market makers, fund managers, traders. They are coming to realize what some of us have been saying since 2010: a storm is coming, and its twin foci are Scotland and Catalonia. It begins in Scotland, where […]

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Scotland’s Referendum: The First Domino by Matthew Sankary

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Common Sense welcomes guest writer Matthew Sankary, who writes about the potential impact of the Scottish and Catalan referendums on markets. Mr. Sankary is a native of Los Angeles and a graduate of the University of California Santa Barbara with a degree in History. He owned a successful real estate and property management business before […]

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La Serenissima

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The citizens of the Italian region of Veneto voted overwhelmingly for independence from Italy in a non-binding referendum which will nevertheless send shock waves throughout Europe. The referendum, organized by the pro-independence organization “Il Veneto Decida” but not recognized by Rome, was held online between the 16th and 21st of March.  The organizers claim that […]

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Die Lüge (The Lie)

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Recent news out of Europe has been surprisingly mild: higher than expected growth in European economies; falling risk premiums across Southern European sovereign bonds; progress on the single bank resolution authority; release of pent up demand. Finance Ministers and business leaders make the proper cautious noises, but the tone is one of suppressed triumphalism: Europe […]

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“Our obligations to our country never cease but with our lives.“

John Adams

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