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Catalonia Update: Confusion Prevails

A quick confirmation of last night’s result, which has not changed significantly since my last post at 2330 hours: A record turnout of 78% in yesterday’s election, which lends tremendous validity to the result of this election. No one can say that the outcome was due to popular indifference; Complaints arose regarding overseas ballots and […]

Catalonia Update: Adéu Espanya?

The vote count in the Catalan regional election is not yet finalized, but initial estimates give the pro-independence parties an electoral plurality that translates into a substantial parliamentary majority. This is at best a mixed result for Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras, who were much criticized for the begrudging manner in which the separatist coalition […]

Catalonia Update: The Epic Fail of the Unbelievably Mediocre

Astonishing. Unbelievable. Stupefying. Words fail as I attempt to describe the unimaginable series of blunders, stupidities and mendacity that have turned a close-run race into an almost certain rout. In just two days and with less than a week before Catalans vote in their regional election cum plebiscite, key figures in the Spanish government and […]

Catalonia Update: Banks, Bluster and Machiavelli’s Guide to Elections

With the main pro-independence parties posting impressive increases in voter intention in the last two weeks before the Catalan regional elections cum plebiscite, Madrid is clearly worried. And well they should be: the main pro-independence parties have gone from polling a meager 40% of voter intention to 49.8% in just two months[1]. That is a […]

Catalonia: “Butifarra-Slicing” Towards Independence

On the 11th of September, Catalans celebrated “La Diada”, the equivalent of America’s Fourth of July. The major difference is that La Diada doesn’t celebrate independence, it commemorates the loss of the historic rights suffered by the Catalans upon the defeat and occupation of Barcelona in 1714 during the last year of the War of […]

Chronicle of a Premeditated Offensive: Consequences for the People of Catalonia

The report “Chronicle of a Premeditated Offensive” analyses the recentralization of the Spanish State vis-à-vis Catalonia’s autonomy and attempts to detail the unequal treatment and discrimination endured by the Catalan population over the years. Full disclosure: This document has been written by the Catalan Government. It’s summary and full document is available at the following link. […]

Keep Calm and Speak English by Alex Calvo

Alex Calvo is a Professor of International Relations and International Law, and guest professor at Nagoya University. An expert on Asian security and defense issues, he got his LLB from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS, University of London) and is currently doing an MA in Second World War Studies at the University […]

Catalonia Update: July 2015

Two recent polls report that support for Catalan independence is waning in Spain’s prickliest region. A survey commissioned by El País[1] indicates that 63% of Catalans view independence as unlikely. Meanwhile, another separate poll commissioned by La Razón[2] shows the pro-independence unity party Junts pel Sí with only 39.5% of expected vote. This would appear […]

Catalonia-Spain Endgame Scenarios: Critical Update

Last April, I introduced the Catalonia-Spain Endgame Scenarios[1], a step-wise progression of actions and counteractions revolving around the “process” towards Catalan independence. At each step, I defined probable actions by one of the key actors – the Spanish national government or the Catalan Generalitat – in response to prior actions. By assigning probabilities to each […]

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John Adams


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